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Overdue correction is looming. Is it time for the bulls to take a summer nap?
 
Singapore

Noble Group
 

Global commodities, ranging from metals to energy resources rallied strongly for the past three months as signs of a global recovery emerged. Noble, being part of the commodities sector benefited from the run-up in commodities prices. However after flirting with the $1.84-$1.86 level for the past month, the tremendous rally from a low of $0.46 on 28th Oct 2008 is showing some signs of exhaustion. Prices have been flat but the RSI formed a series of lower highs, a sign of bearish divergence. In addition, Noble has been trading below its 20-day moving average since 3rd July 2009. Thus investors who are chasing commodities stocks need to be cautious as a potential correction may occur for Noble in the coming weeks. Immediate support may be at $1.65 and a clear break of that support may see a slide towards the stronger classical support of $1.41. This support also coincides with the 100-day moving average. On the upside, Noble needs to break above the recent June high of $1.86 which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the broad decline from its current all-time high of $2.70 seen on 23rd May 2008 to the 28th Oct 2008 low to resume its prior uptrend to target the next classical resistance level that may be at $2.25.

 
 
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